NFL Power Rankings — Week 6, 2026
As of 2026-10-20
latest is Week 7, 2026
| # | Team | Rec | Rating | Inj | Earl's Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Δ – | 4-2 | +8.5 | -0.7 | Jacksonville still grades out as the No. 1 team in the league at 8.505 points better than average on a neutral field, but that rating dropped 1.952 from last week and sits well below last season's 10.296 prior. The market is lagging this number by 6.13 points, which screams buy-low on a team whose last-five profile (plus-0.152 EPA per play, plus-5.2 point differential, 24.0 points scored against 18.8 allowed) is far from dominant, especially with Montaric Brown out and Jourdan Lewis limited in the secondary. |
| 2 | Δ ▲4 | 5-0 | +5.8 | — | Minnesota grades out as the No. 2 team in the league at 5.75 points better than average on a neutral field, and that rating jumped nearly two full points this week to go with a 5-0 record. The profile is legit on both sides: 21.8 points scored and just 12.8 allowed over the last five, with a positive EPA differential of 0.135 per play. The market sits at 6.59 versus my number, so I'm not chasing this team at a premium — but with no key players unavailable and a rating this high, they're a hold, not a sell. |
| 3 | Δ ▲4 | 4-2 | +5.5 | -1.7 | New England grades out 5.47 points better than an average team on a neutral field, third in the league, and that rating jumped 1.76 this week despite a modest 2.38 strength of schedule. The number already docks 1.7 points for Carlton Davis being out and A.J. Brown and Christian Elliss being questionable, so the market's 5.88 sits slightly above the model — this is a slight sell at current prices rather than a buy. |
| 4 | Δ ▲1 | 5-0 | +3.6 | -1.6 | KC rates 3.56 points better than an average team on a neutral field, good for fourth in the league, but that number is down 0.58 from last week and sits 1.59 points below the market — meaning the public is pricing the 5-0 record, not the underlying form. The last-five profile is genuinely strong (28.0 PPG scored, 16.6 allowed, +0.257 EPA per play), yet a -3.72 strength of schedule and a 1.6-point dock for Rashee Rice's absence say this is a sell-high candidate laying inflated spreads. |
| 5 | Δ ▲3 | 5-1 | +3.3 | -1.1 | Buffalo sits 5th with a 3.3-point neutral-field rating, but that number is down 0.2 from last week and a full 1.2 below last season's 4.5, so the market's -2.83 vs. the rating says this team is being priced closer to its old self than its current form. The offense is scoring 32.2 per game over the last five, yet allowing 28.0 with just a 0.063 EPA edge and a 4.2 point differential, meaning the rating is doing heavy lifting the on-field margin doesn't support. With DJ Moore and Joshua Palmer both questionable and 1.1 points already docked for injuries, I'm selling Buffalo at anything near a field-goal favorite until the defense tightens up. |
| 6 | Δ ▲3 | 3-2 | +3.2 | -0.4 | Carolina's +3.24 neutral-field rating ranks 6th and jumped 1.38 points this week, a massive move off a 29.2 points-per-game scoring clip and positive 0.113 EPA per play over the last five. At 5.14 points better than the market, this is a clear buy -- the number is lagging a real surge, and the rating already absorbs the 0.4-point dock for AJ Dillon and Jaelan Phillips. |
| 7 | Δ ▼5 | 6-0 | +3.2 | -4.5 | San Francisco sits at 6-0 with a plus-3.23 neutral-field rating that already eats a 4.5-point injury dock for Deebo Samuel (Out), Mike Evans (Questionable), and Marques Sigle (Out), yet the rating still dropped 4.74 points week-over-week, so the market's 0.24-point lean toward them is thin. The last-five profile is genuinely strong at 30.0 points scored, 20.6 allowed, and plus-0.285 EPA per play against a soft minus-2.35 schedule, but that schedule softness inflates the raw numbers. I'd sell the undefeated record rather than the roster: a 3.23 rating makes them only a small favorite over an average team, so any spread near a field goal or more is a fade. |
| 8 | Δ ▲2 | 3-2 | +3.0 | — | Cincinnati sits at No. 8 with a +2.98 neutral-field rating that jumped 2.09 points in a week, and the underlying profile backs it up: a +0.09 EPA per play over the last five with a +3.8 point differential against a solid 0.831 schedule. That +1.02 vs-market edge says the books are still pricing this team closer to its -1.34 prior-season rating than its current form, making CIN a clear buy-low before the number catches up. With no injury dock and a clean 3-2 record, this rating supports laying roughly a field goal against an average opponent. |
| 9 | Δ ▲4 | 3-2 | +2.4 | — | Detroit's 2.436 neutral-field rating ranks 9th and jumped 2.45 points in a week, but that gain came against the softest schedule in the data at -1.497, so I'm not buying the full move yet. The offense is scoring 32.8 per game over the last five, yet a defense allowing 29.6 and a thin 0.058 EPA edge per play explain the mere 3.2-point average margin. At -0.3 versus the market this is a slight sell-high: the rating says they're roughly a field goal better than average, so don't lay more than about a field goal with them until the schedule stiffens. |
| 10 | Δ ▼7 | 3-3 | +2.4 | -2.3 | Seattle sits at 10th with a 2.42 neutral-field rating, but that's down a massive 2.39 points from last week, and the -3.48 vs. market gap says the number has been too high on this team all season. The 27.0 points per game over the last five masks a thin 0.0357 EPA differential and a modest 4.6-point margin, and with Zach Charbonnet out and the rating already docked 2.3 points for injuries, this is a sell — the profile is closer to a fringe top-12 team than a legitimate contender. |
| 11 | Δ – | 4-2 | +1.1 | -1.2 | Denver sits at 11th with a 1.12 neutral-field rating, up 0.30 from last week, but that number already absorbs a 1.2-point injury dock for missing Patrick Surtain and Talanoa Hufanga, so the secondary absences are real and priced in. The profile is thin for a 4-2 team: 20.8 points per game on offense, a 0.01 EPA differential per play, and just a 2.0 point differential over the last five says this is a defense-and-luck record, not a dominant one. At only 0.19 points better than the market, there's no edge either way, so I'm a hold here and would lean against laying more than a field goal with this offense until the rating climbs on its own merit. |
| 12 | Δ ▼8 | 2-4 | +1.1 | — | The Rams sit at 12th with a +1.08 neutral-field rating, but that number is collapsing, down 3.35 points in a week, and a 2-4 record against a soft -0.34 schedule says the market's -5.63 vs. the spread is closer to the truth than the rating. With no key players docked and a +0.175 EPA differential over the last five, this is a sell at anything resembling a field-goal favorite until the rating stabilizes. |
| 13 | Δ ▲2 | 4-2 | -0.4 | -4.5 | Chicago grades out at -0.367 points versus an average team on a neutral field, and that number already eats a 4.5-point injury dock with Caleb Williams questionable plus Odeyingbo and Monangai out, so the underlying roster is stronger than the rank-13 slot suggests. The last-five profile is quietly solid: 18.2 points scored against 16.4 allowed with a positive EPA differential and a 2.28 mark against the market, meaning this team has been beating the number. With a 0.687 strength of schedule and a big prior-season rating of 2.447, I'm a buyer on Chicago as an underrated side getting more points than it should. |
| 14 | Δ ▼2 | 2-4 | -0.4 | -2.8 | Houston sits at -0.369 points versus an average team on a neutral field, and that rating has fallen 0.631 in a week while the market still prices them 2.1 points better than this number — a clear sell signal. The underlying profile is mediocre, not broken: 22.6 points scored against 21.4 allowed over the last five with a +0.10 EPA differential, but a 2-4 record and 2.8 points docked for injuries (Montgomery and Pitre out, Collins limited) cap the upside. This is a team the market overrates by roughly a field goal, so fade Houston laying points and look to take them as a home dog instead. |
| 15 | Δ ▲2 | 4-2 | -0.6 | -2.3 | Green Bay sits at 15th with a -0.596 neutral-field rating, meaning they're roughly a half-point worse than an average team, and the market has already shaded them further at -0.72 versus the number. The 0.441 weekly climb and +3.8 point differential over the last five are real buy signals, but a 2.3-point injury dock with St-Juste, Hargrave, and Skyy Moore all out caps the upside. I'd treat them as a slight sell at current prices until the rating catches up to the recent form. |
| 16 | Δ ▼2 | 4-2 | -1.8 | -3.8 | Pittsburgh sits at 16th with a -1.78 neutral-field rating, and that number has cratered 1.54 points in a week, so this is a sell — the market still has them at 0.36 versus the number while the underlying rating says they're closer to a field-goal underdog against an average opponent. The last-five profile is dead average (23.4 points scored, 23.0 allowed, -0.039 EPA per play), and with DK Metcalf not practicing plus Roman Wilson and Armentae Elliott out, the 3.8-point injury dock is real and likely to grow. |
| 17 | Δ ▼1 | 2-4 | -1.9 | -1.5 | Atlanta sits at -1.814 rating points on a neutral field, down 0.881 from last week, and that slide is real given a -0.0456 EPA differential and -0.8 point differential over the last five. The 3.71 vs-market number says this team has been covering for bettors despite a 2-4 record, but with 1.4 points docked for injuries including Drake London limited and Christopher Henderson out, I'm selling the recent market success rather than buying it. At this rating they're a slight home underdog or small road favorite against an average opponent, so don't overpay laying points with a banged-up roster. |
| 18 | Δ – | 2-4 | -4.1 | -0.5 | Dallas sits at 18th with a -4.137 neutral-field rating, down another 0.794 this week, and that number is already docked for the absences of Decobie Durant (out) and the questionable Overshown and Overton on defense. The last-five profile is pure mediocrity — 26.2 points scored and 26.2 allowed, a -0.066 EPA diff per play and a 0.0 point differential — so this is a team treading water, not one building toward anything. The market has them at -4.89 versus my number, meaning Dallas is being priced about three-quarters of a point worse than the rating suggests; that's a mild buy-low on the spread, but the -1.484 strength of schedule softens any real edge. |
| 19 | Δ ▲2 | 3-3 | -4.5 | -1.6 | Las Vegas sits at 19th with a -4.45 neutral-field rating, a massive 6.1-point jump from last year's -10.59, and the +1.48 weekly move says the market is catching up to a real improvement. The last-five profile is volatile — 27.0 points scored against 29.8 allowed, -0.05 EPA per play, -2.8 point differential — so this is a team winning on efficiency margins rather than dominance, and the 4.31 vs-market number makes them a live buy as an underdog before the number fully corrects. The 1.6-point injury dock for Terrell Hemingway and Dont'e Thornton is baked in, so don't double-count those absences when you line up the spread. |
| 20 | Δ ▼1 | 2-4 | -5.1 | -1.7 | The Colts rate at -5.15 points versus an average team on a neutral field, which puts them closer to a touchdown underdog than a pick'em, and that number is trending the wrong way with a -0.80 drop this week. Losing DeForest Buckner up front is material for a defense allowing 24.6 points per game over its last five, and the market has already caught on given the -1.89 vs-market mark. That makes Indy a sell at anything shorter than the rating implies, since the underlying profile (2-4, -0.4 point differential, -0.022 EPA per play) doesn't support laying points. |
| 21 | Δ ▲3 | 2-4 | -6.2 | -1.9 | New Orleans sits at -6.179 points versus an average team on a neutral field, which is a bottom-tier rating that has been trending up (+1.143 this week) but still trails the prior-season mark of -3.146. The last five games tell the story: 24.4 points scored against 29.4 allowed, a -0.175 EPA diff per play, and a -5.0 point differential, all with Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, and Kaden Elliss either out or questionable — that 1.9-point injury dock is real and material. The vs_market number of +0.4 says the number is basically priced right, so there's no buy-low edge here; this is a team you fade or leave alone until the rating climbs out of the bottom third. |
| 22 | Δ ▲3 | 2-4 | -6.2 | -3.0 | The Jets are quietly trending up, gaining 1.568 rating points this week and sitting at -6.234 on a neutral field, a massive leap from last year's -14.442 prior rating. That +2.9 vs. market mark says the public is still pricing this team on last year's disaster, so there's real buy-low value here before the number catches up. The -6.234 rating is roughly a touchdown underdog on a neutral field, and with Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell out, the 3.0-point injury dock is already baked in, so don't double-count those absences when you're shopping for a spread. |
| 23 | Δ ▼3 | 3-2-1 | -6.5 | -1.3 | At -6.48 points vs. an average team on a neutral field, the Giants are a bottom-tier unit that has been sliding, down another 1.13 points versus last week, and their -5.02 strength of schedule is the only thing keeping the record at 3-2. The market has already punished them relative to my number (vs_market +4.56), so this is a sell on any inflated spread, especially with the secondary thinned by Nubin and Hood both out and Newsome limited. A -0.11 EPA differential per play over the last five with a 21.6/24.0 scoring split says this team is a fade, not a buy. |
| 24 | Δ ▲3 | 0-5 | -7.6 | — | Miami rates 24th at -7.6 points versus an average team on a neutral field, and that number is actually up 0.9 from last week despite an 0-5 start and a brutal last-five stretch of -12.4 point differential per game. The offense is scoring just 14.0 per game against 26.4 allowed, with a -0.233 EPA per play, so this is a bad team whose rating still sits well below where a typical spread would price it. The market has been 7.7 points off on this team, which makes Miami a sell until the rating stabilizes. |
| 25 | Δ ▲1 | 4-2 | -7.8 | -6.5 | Cleveland sits at 25th with a -7.8 neutral-field rating, but that number is already docked 6.5 points for injuries, including QB Dillon Gabriel, and the underlying form is quietly better than the rank suggests: +0.02 EPA per play and a +1.6 point differential over the last five with a tough 1.72 schedule. The market has them 2.93 points better than this rating implies, so the number is catching up to a team that's a mild buy at current spreads rather than a fade. |
| 26 | Δ ▼3 | 4-2 | -8.0 | -8.6 | Baltimore is a sell at -8.0 neutral-field rating, down 1.18 from last week and a massive 10.6 points worse than the market despite a 4-2 record, and that gap is the story here. The 8.6 injury dock is fully deserved with Lamar Jackson out and Calais Campbell not practicing, and the underlying profile backs it up: just +1.2 point differential and 0.069 EPA per play over the last five against a weak -3.63 schedule. This rating says they're closer to a touchdown underdog than a contender, so fade any spread that still prices them off their record. |
| 27 | Δ ▲4 | 1-5 | -9.8 | -1.1 | Tennessee sits at 27th with a -9.79 neutral-field rating, but that's a 3.11-point jump from last week and a big improvement on last year's -7.33 prior, so this is a team trending up even at 1-5. The offense is the anchor dragging them down at 14.8 points per game over the last five with a -0.15 EPA differential per play, and losing Kevin Winston and Jordan Elliott doesn't help a defense allowing 21.2. The market angle is the real story: at 4.08 points better than the spread, they're being undervalued by the number, making them a quiet buy as a road dog rather than a fade. |
| 28 | Δ – | 1-5 | -10.8 | -8.9 | At -10.79 points versus an average team on a neutral field, Tampa Bay grades as the 28th-best team in the league, and the rating is still sliding (-0.682 this week) with an 8.9-point injury dock driven by Baker Mayfield, Antoine Winfield and David Sills all out. The offense is averaging just 18.4 points over its last five against a schedule 1.25 points harder than average, and the -0.026 EPA per play confirms this is a bottom-tier unit rather than a victim of bad luck. The market sits 3.94 points off this rating, meaning the number is already shaded toward Tampa Bay, so I'm not chasing a buy here — this is a sell on any spread that asks them to keep it close. |
| 29 | Δ ▲1 | 2-4 | -10.9 | -2.9 | Arizona is a bottom-five team by the numbers, rated -10.92 points versus an average squad on a neutral field, and the -12.8 point differential over the last five games with a 32.8 points allowed average confirms this isn't just bad luck. The rating is already docked 2.9 points for absences like Jeremiyah Love and Andrew Wingard, and with a -0.45 vs-market gap the number isn't even buying you a discount, so this is a clear sell — lay the points against them and don't chase the inflated line. |
| 30 | Δ ▼1 | 0-6 | -10.9 | -3.9 | At -10.9 points versus an average team on a neutral field, the Chargers grade as one of the worst teams in the league, and their -6.24 vs-market mark says the betting public is still pricing them several points better than the numbers justify. The last-five profile is ugly on both sides — 15.2 points scored against 25.0 allowed and a -0.119 EPA per play — and losing Derwin James, Donte Jackson, and Cleveland Harris only deepens the hole. This is a clear sell: lay the points against them and treat any spread near a touchdown as a gift. |
| 31 | Δ ▲1 | 1-4-1 | -13.3 | -6.7 | Washington sits at -13.27 points versus an average team on a neutral field, a rank of 31, and the -3.26 vs-market gap says the number has been too generous to them all year, so this is a sell. The 2.536-point weekly bump is noise against a -7.6 point differential over the last five and a -0.1178 EPA per play, and with Marcus Mariota out and Stefon Diggs questionable, the 6.7-point injury dock is justified. Until the defense stops allowing 29.6 points per game, laying anything close to a normal spread with this team is a losing proposition. |
| 32 | Δ ▼10 | 2-4 | -14.0 | -10.7 | Philadelphia is a full sell at -13.9 points versus an average team on a neutral field, dead last in the league, and that rating has cratered 7.8 points in a week with a 16.4 points-per-game offense and -0.23 EPA per play over the last five. Losing Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and Will Shipley is the whole story, and the 10.6 injury dock is already baked into that number, so this isn't a buy-low on a bad stretch. The market sitting at -10.5 against a -13.9 rating says books are still shading toward the name brand, which makes laying points with or against this team a trap until the lineup stabilizes. |
Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. Δ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale — positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams →