NBA Power Rankings — Week 25, 2025
As of 2026-04-13
latest is Week 1, 2026
| # | Team | Rec | Rating | Inj | Earl's Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Δ ▲1 | 62-21 | +10.3 | — | San Antonio sits at No. 1 with a +10.32 neutral-field rating, a massive jump from a -3.54 prior-season mark, and they've beaten the market by 2.25 points all year at 62-21. The rating is ticking down (-0.54 week over week) against a soft -0.105 schedule, but with zero injury points docked and no key absences, this is a legit buy rather than a paper tiger. At roughly 10 points better than an average team, they should be laying about 10 in a neutral spot, so any shorter number is value. |
| 2 | Δ ▲3 | 60-22 | +8.9 | — | Detroit sits at No. 2 with an 8.898 neutral-field rating, up a hefty 2.116 points in a week, and its 60-22 record came against a schedule 0.705 points softer than average, so the resume is real but slightly inflated by weak competition. The market is already hip to it, pricing the team 2.85 points better than my number, which makes this a sell-high spot rather than a buy. With no key absences docked, the rating is clean, but I'd only lay this number if the matchup forces it. |
| 3 | Δ ▼2 | 64-18 | +8.1 | -2.6 | OKC's 8.06 neutral rating is strong but has dropped 3.5 points in a week, and with a -4.44 vs-market number the market has been ahead of this rating all season, so there's no value backing the Thunder at current prices. The 2.64-point injury dock for Jaylin Williams, Cason Wallace, and Isaiah Joe is real but manageable given the soft -0.077 strength of schedule. Treat this as a slight sell until the rating stabilizes — the prior-season 12.75 shows the ceiling, but the recent slide says don't pay for it now. |
| 4 | Δ – | 44-38 | +8.0 | — | CHA grades out at 8.03 points better than an average team on a neutral field, a massive +19.9 jump from a prior-season rating of -11.92, yet the market still prices them 5.07 points below that mark, so this is a clear buy. The rating is trending slightly down (-0.26 week over week) against a soft schedule (-0.47), which tempers the enthusiasm a touch, but at rank 4 with 44 wins the number says they are legitimately underrated versus typical spreads. |
| 5 | Δ ▲1 | 54-29 | +7.1 | — | The Knicks grade out as a legit top-five team at 7.145 points above average on a neutral field, and that rating jumped 1.544 in a week while they went 54-29 against a schedule essentially at league average (-0.142). They're also beating the market by 1.94 points, which says the number is still lagging this team and there's a real buy signal here. With no key players unavailable and the rating already reflecting zero injury dock, this is a team to back laying the points rather than fade. |
| 6 | Δ ▼3 | 56-26 | +5.5 | -3.5 | Boston sits 6th at +5.47 points on a neutral field, but that rating has slid 3.28 points in a week and already includes a 3.48-point dock for absences like Vučević and Queta, so the market's -0.19 vs the number suggests the public is still pricing this team closer to its 8.03 prior-season form than its current health. That gap makes Boston a sell at anything near a full-strength spread — the rating says they're barely a touchdown better than average right now, not the elite number their 56-26 record implies. |
| 7 | Δ ▲3 | 52-30 | +4.6 | — | Houston sits 7th with a 4.626 neutral-field rating, up 0.777 from last week, and they've done it against a slightly below-average schedule (-0.365) — that's a real number, not a schedule artifact. The red flag is vs_market at -1.44, meaning the market has consistently priced them about a point and a half better than this rating, so they're a mild sell when laying points and the rating implies a fair spread of roughly 4.6 vs an average opponent. With no key players unavailable and the rating already injury-adjusted, this is a legit top-10 team whose price is running a touch ahead of the underlying performance. |
| 8 | Δ – | 54-28 | +4.0 | -2.2 | Denver sits at 8th with a 4.0 neutral-field rating, down 0.887 from last week and already docked 2.21 points for injuries, with Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones and Christian Braun all inactive. That -0.98 vs the market means the number is shading against them, so this is a sell-high spot rather than a buy. |
| 9 | Δ ▲3 | 46-36 | +3.4 | -0.7 | Toronto grades 9th at +3.427 points on a neutral field, a big jump of +0.657 this week, and the market is still catching up given the +1.87 vs-market edge over 82 games. That rating already bakes in a 0.68-point dock for RJ Barrett being inactive, so the number is honest, and at roughly 3.4 points this team is a clear buy whenever the spread prices them closer to a coin flip. |
| 10 | Δ ▼1 | 52-30 | +3.0 | -0.6 | Cleveland sits at 10th with a +2.96 neutral-court rating, but that's down 1.22 points from last week and a steep fall from last season's 8.52, so this is a team trending the wrong way rather than a stable contender. The market has been two-plus points ahead of this number (vs_market -2.83), which makes the Cavs a sell — you're paying a tax on the name, not the performance. With Keon Ellis inactive and a soft schedule (-0.29) flattering the 52-30 record, treat Cleveland as a fade whenever the spread demands more than about three points. |
| 11 | Δ ▼4 | 46-36 | +2.5 | -2.1 | Atlanta's 2.53 rating (11th) is a modest number that's already been docked 2.08 points for the absences of Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, so the healthy version of this team is meaningfully better than the current figure suggests. The -2.60 weekly rating change is the loudest signal here, a sharp slide that makes this a sell-high-on-the-market, buy-low-on-the-numbers spot rather than a team to back at current prices. With a 46-36 record and a 1.18 vs-market mark, the market has been slightly ahead of this rating all year, so don't lay inflated spreads with a shorthanded roster. |
| 12 | Δ ▲4 | 53-29 | +2.1 | -0.8 | The Lakers grade out at +2.064 points over an average team on a neutral floor, up a sharp 1.119 this week, and their 53-29 record with a +0.65 mark vs the market says the books have been shading them slightly light all season. That rating already absorbs a 0.75-point dock for Jaxson Hayes being inactive, so the number is honest rather than inflated. At roughly two points they're a marginal buy in the right matchup, but they're no steal against a quality opponent where the line sits near a field goal. |
| 13 | Δ ▼2 | 42-40 | +1.9 | — | The Clippers sit at 13th with a +1.864 neutral-field rating, but that number is sliding fast — down 0.927 versus last week — and it's a massive drop from last season's 8.401, so this is a team in clear decline, not a contender. Their 42-40 record came against a soft schedule (-0.289), and with a +0.73 vs-market mark they've been slightly better than the closing line suggests, so I'd call them fairly priced rather than a buy. At this rating they're only about 2 points better than an average team, meaning any spread north of a field goal against a quality opponent is a sell. |
| 14 | Δ ▼1 | 49-33 | +1.4 | -1.2 | Minnesota sits at 14th with a +1.392 neutral rating, but that's down a steep 1.335 points from last week and already carries a 1.18-point dock for Ayo Dosunmu and Bones Hyland being inactive. At -1.63 against the market, they're a clear sell — the number is pricing them closer to their 6.812 prior-season rating than the current form, and a +1.4 rating means they should be laying well under a bucket on a neutral floor, not the inflated spot the market's giving them. |
| 15 | Δ ▲2 | 45-37 | +0.5 | — | Orlando sits at 15th with a neutral-field rating of just 0.516 points above average, and that number is still well below last season's 0.923 prior — the market's -1.3 vs. their rating suggests they're being priced slightly rich relative to the underlying data. The 1.243-point weekly jump is a real buy signal, but with a soft 0.265 strength of schedule inflating it, I'd fade the hype until this rating climbs toward last year's level. |
| 16 | Δ ▲3 | 42-40 | -0.1 | -1.4 | Portland sits at 16th with a near-neutral rating of -0.132 points, and that number already absorbs a hefty 1.45-point dock for Vít Krejčí being inactive, so the roster is thinner than the raw rank suggests. The 1.017-point rating jump versus last week is the real signal here: this team is trending up and the market hasn't fully caught on, with vs_market at -0.1 leaving a sliver of value. Buy low on the Blazers before the number moves. |
| 17 | Δ ▲1 | 45-37 | -0.5 | — | PHI sits at 17th with a neutral-field rating of -0.508, meaning they're essentially a coin-flip team that a typical spread would price as a pick'em or slight dog depending on opponent. The 0.411 weekly jump is the real story here — that's meaningful upward movement off a dreadful -8.609 prior-season rating, so this is a buy-low-turned-buy candidate rather than a finished product. With a near-neutral schedule (-0.031) and no key absences docked, the market's 0.52 against-the-spread hit rate looks fair, but I'd lean toward backing them while the rating is still climbing. |
| 18 | Δ ▼4 | 45-37 | -0.9 | -2.7 | Phoenix sits at 18th with a neutral-field rating of -0.895, and the -2.692 weekly drop is the real story — this team is trending the wrong way fast even against a soft 0.289 schedule. The rating already docks 2.68 points for absences like Mark Williams, so there's no hidden value here, and the -1.33 vs-market gap says the number is still shaded against them. This is a sell: at roughly a bucket worse than an average team, they're a fade or a give-the-points candidate whenever the market prices them near a pick'em. |
| 19 | Δ ▼4 | 43-39 | -1.4 | -2.7 | Miami sits at -1.429 points versus an average team on a neutral floor, and that number is already docked 2.71 points for the absences of Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, and Norman Powell, so the healthy version of this team is meaningfully better than the market thinks. The rating has cratered 2.505 points in a week and the market is pricing them 2.21 points worse than my number, which makes this a clear buy-low on a team whose 43-39 record undersells its actual strength against a soft 0.159 schedule. |
| 20 | Δ – | 26-56 | -3.5 | -0.3 | New Orleans grades out at -3.497 points versus an average team on a neutral floor, which slots them 20th and says they're a below-average club that the market has actually been too harsh on — the +2.19 vs-market number shows they've beaten the closing line more often than not this season. The rating is trending the wrong way (-0.18 week over week) even after a massive jump from a -10.714 prior-season mark, so this is a modest sell-high on the improvement story rather than a buy, and Bryce McGowens being inactive is only a minor dock at 0.33 points. At 26-56, treat them as a small spread-cover candidate in the right matchup, not a team to back on the moneyline. |
| 21 | Δ – | 37-45 | -5.5 | -2.5 | Golden State sits at 21st with a -5.486 neutral rating, a massive fall from last year's +4.897, and the -0.765 weekly slide confirms this is a team still trending the wrong way. The rating already bakes in a 2.54-point dock for missing Draymond Green, Gui Santos, and Kristaps Porziņģis, so the absences are real but not an excuse for a squad that's 37-45. The market is still pricing them 4.16 points better than this number suggests, which makes Golden State a clear sell — you're getting value fading them against a typical spread. |
| 22 | Δ – | 26-56 | -8.4 | -2.0 | Dallas sits at 22nd with a minus-8.37 neutral rating, down another 0.78 this week, and that already includes a 1.99-point dock for missing Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington and Marvin Bagley III. At 26-56 with a -5.36 prior rating, this is a clear sell — the market has been slow to price how thin the frontcourt is. Against an average opponent this rating implies roughly a -8.4 spread, so any line near a touchdown or less is a fade-on-Dallas spot. |
| 23 | Δ ▲1 | 19-63 | -9.1 | -2.3 | Indiana rates at minus-9.1 points versus an average team on a neutral field, 23rd in the league, a steep fall from a plus-3.7 prior-season rating, and the 2.34-point injury dock for Jarace Walker, Ben Sheppard and Kobe Brown is already baked in. The one bright spot is a 2.41-point edge against the market, meaning the number has been catching up to this team's true level, and the 1.30-point weekly climb plus a soft 0.385 strength of schedule says the rating is stabilizing rather than collapsing. At 19-63 this is a sell on reputation but a mild buy on the number, since the spread is now pricing Indiana closer to its real minus-9 profile than the public's memory of last year. |
| 24 | Δ ▼1 | 31-51 | -9.4 | -2.5 | At -9.418 points versus an average team on a neutral floor, Chicago ranks 24th and has slid another 0.895 points in the last week, so this is a clear sell rather than a buy. The rating already absorbs a 2.45-point dock for missing Nick Richards, Anfernee Simons, and Isaac Okoro, meaning the healthy roster is closer to a 7-point underdog baseline — and with a -1.34 vs-market mark, the market has been slow to fully price how bad this team is. Lay the points against Chicago and don't expect the number to stay this generous. |
| 25 | Δ – | 32-50 | -10.2 | -1.8 | Milwaukee grades out at -10.2 points versus an average team on a neutral floor, 25th in the league, and that's already after a 1.78-point dock for missing Bobby Portis, Kevin Porter Jr. and Pete Nance. This is a clear sell: the market is pricing them 1.75 points better than this rating, so you're laying inflated numbers on a 32-50 team that's still far below its 3.76 prior-season rating. The modest 0.59 weekly uptick doesn't change a 10-point gap to average, so fade Milwaukee as a favorite and treat any short spread as a gift to bet against them. |
| 26 | Δ – | 22-60 | -10.9 | -1.4 | Sacramento's -10.9 neutral-field rating ranks 26th and is actually a slight improvement (plus-0.145) over last week, but with Keegan Murray, Zach LaVine and Drew Eubanks all inactive and 1.42 points already docked for those absences, this is a roster running thin at 22-60. The one real angle here is that they've beaten the market by 2.42 points, so the number is likely shaded a bit too far against them — a marginal buy on the spread, not a team to back outright. |
| 27 | Δ – | 22-60 | -11.2 | -1.9 | UTA rates at -11.23 points versus an average team on a neutral floor, 27th in the league and a slight decline (-0.03) from last week, with a soft 0.342 strength of schedule and a prior-season rating of -10.46 confirming this is a genuine bottom-tier profile rather than a schedule artifact. The 22-60 record fits, and the rating already bakes in a 1.95-point dock for absences including Kyle Filipowski, Isaiah Collier, and Elijah Harkless, so don't expect the market to hand you extra value for those names. The real angle is the +2.02 vs_market mark: the market has consistently priced Utah slightly better than this rating implies, which makes them a mild sell as a road favorite and a team to fade when the number asks them to lay points. |
| 28 | Δ – | 25-57 | -13.2 | -3.1 | Memphis grades out at -13.17 points versus an average team on a neutral floor, 28th in the league, and the rating is sliding fast at -1.76 week-over-week, so this is a clear sell. The number already docks 3.07 points for absences including Cedric Coward and Cam Spencer, yet the market still sits 1.67 points above this rating, meaning you're laying too many points on a 25-57 team with a soft 0.363 schedule — fade any spread that prices the Grizzlies near a typical line. |
| 29 | Δ ▲1 | 17-65 | -15.2 | -2.5 | Washington sits at -15.2 points versus an average team on a neutral floor, ranked 29th and actually a hair worse than its -12.5 prior-season mark despite a small 0.455 weekly uptick against the league's softest schedule (0.438). With three rotation pieces out and 2.5 points already docked for those absences, this is a clear sell — the 17-65 record and 0.77 vs-market number say the market has been slow to price how far below average this team really is. |
| 30 | Δ ▼1 | 20-62 | -15.9 | -3.4 | Brooklyn is dead last at -15.88 points versus an average team on a neutral field, and the rating has cratered another 3.75 points in the past week, so this is a hard sell in any matchup. The 20-62 record and -1.56 vs-market gap confirm the market already prices them as a bottom-tier team, meaning any spread under about 16 against a league-average opponent is too short to touch. With Nic Claxton, Nolan Traoré and Drake Powell all inactive and 3.35 points docked for those absences, fade Brooklyn or pass entirely. |
Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. Δ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale — positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams →