NBA Power Rankings

#	Team	Rec	Rating	Inj	Δ Wk	SOS	vs Mkt	Earl's Take
1	Detroit Pistons Δ —	3-0	+11.9	—	——	+2.5	+6.2	Detroit sits at No. 1 with an 11.9-point neutral-field rating, up sharply from an 8.9 prior-season mark, and they're 3-0 against a schedule rated 2.5 points above average. The market is still catching up: at 6.15 points of edge versus the spread, this team is a clear buy, and a rating this high means they should be laying close to double digits against a typical opponent. No key players are unavailable, so the number is clean.
2	Oklahoma City Thunder Δ —	4-0	+10.9	—	——	+2.8	-3.7	OKC grades out as the No. 2 team in the league at +10.94 points better than average on a neutral field, up sharply from an 8.06 prior-season rating, and they've opened 4-0 with no injury dock against the second-toughest schedule in the sample. The market is still pricing them 3.67 points shy of this rating, so they're a clear buy — you're getting roughly a field goal of value on the number every time you lay it. With a healthy roster and a schedule-adjusted profile this strong, this is a team to back now before the lines fully catch up.
3	Houston Rockets Δ —	4-0	+9.6	—	——	+5.3	+6.2	Houston grades out as a legitimate top-three team at 9.637 points better than average on a neutral field, a massive jump from last year's 4.626 prior rating, and they've backed it up at 4-0 against a schedule that's no cakewalk (5.334 SOS). The market is still catching up, with a 6.21-point gap between their rating and the number, so this is a clear buy — their rating implies they should be laying roughly 9.5 to an average opponent, meaning any spread near a touchdown or less is value. No key players are docked for injury (0.0), so the rating is clean.
4	San Antonio Spurs Δ —	1-2	+9.5	—	——	+5.3	-2.4	San Antonio's 9.532 neutral-field rating ranks 4th and sits just a hair under its 10.316 prior-season mark, so this is a legitimately strong team despite the 1-2 record, and the 5.289 strength of schedule explains some of that early noise. The market is pricing the Spurs about 2.43 points worse than this rating implies, which makes them a clear buy-low candidate as long as the number stays inflated against them. With no key players docked and a clean injury report, this rating is real, so back San Antonio whenever the spread drifts a couple points past what the number says it should be.
5	Minnesota Timberwolves Δ —	3-1	+9.0	—	——	+1.3	+6.8	Minnesota sits 5th with a 9.049 neutral-field rating, a massive jump from last season's 1.392, and they've backed it up at 3-1 against the toughest schedule in the sample (1.338). The market is still catching up, with a 6.78 gap between rating and market price, so this is a clear buy — their rating implies they should be laying roughly 9 points on a neutral field, more than a typical spread prices them at. No key players are docked, so the number is clean.
6	Boston Celtics Δ —	2-1	+8.4	—	——	+1.3	+2.1	Boston grades out at 8.412 points better than an average team on a neutral field, sixth in the league, and that's already up sharply from a 5.465 prior-season rating, so this is a real step forward rather than noise. The 2.08 points of market value against the number says the books have been slow to price that jump, which makes Boston a buy at current spreads. With no key players unavailable and a strength of schedule of 1.298, the rating is earned against live competition, so lay the points with confidence.
7	Atlanta Hawks Δ —	2-2	+8.3	—	——	+5.4	+7.4	Atlanta grades out at 8.256 points better than an average team on a neutral field, good for 7th in the league, and that's a massive jump from a 2.533 prior-season rating despite a modest 2-2 record against a 5.394 schedule. The market has them at just 7.4 versus a 7.4 rating, so there's essentially no edge baked into the number — this is a legit top-10 team by the model, not a fluke, but you're not getting a discount either. With no key players unavailable and no injury dock, the rating is clean, so treat Atlanta as a fair-priced buy rather than a value play until the market lags behind the underlying jump.
8	Los Angeles Lakers Δ —	3-0	+5.4	—	——	-3.6	-3.1	The Lakers rank 8th with a +5.405 neutral-field rating, up sharply from a 2.064 prior-season mark, but that 3-0 record comes against a soft -3.589 strength of schedule, so the win column overstates how good this team actually is. The market is already pricing them 3.09 points better than my rating, which makes them a clear sell at current spreads until they prove it against real competition.
9	Portland Trail Blazers Δ —	2-0	+5.3	—	——	-7.0	-2.4	Portland grades 9th at +5.3 points better than average on a neutral floor, a massive jump from a -0.13 prior-season rating, so this is a real buy signal rather than noise. But that rating has come against a schedule 7.0 points softer than average, and the market is already 2.4 points ahead of the number, meaning the spread is pricing in more than the underlying data supports. Treat the hot 2-0 start as inflated by weak competition and look to sell Portland laying points until the schedule stiffens.
10	Toronto Raptors Δ —	2-1	+5.0	—	——	-4.7	-3.7	Toronto grades out 10th at +5.0 points better than an average team on a neutral field, up from a 3.4 prior-season rating, but that number comes with a -4.7 strength of schedule, so the 2-1 record is softer than it looks. The market is a full 3.7 points below this rating, which makes Toronto a clear buy-low if the schedule stiffens without the rating falling.
11	New York Knicks Δ —	0-3	+4.9	—	——	+4.2	+1.3	The Knicks rate 4.929 points better than an average team on a neutral field, 11th in the league, but that's down from a 7.145 prior-season rating and they've opened 0-3 against the toughest schedule in this sample (4.153). The market is still pricing them 1.27 points better than this rating implies, so I'm selling New York at current spreads until the number catches down to the data.
12	LA Clippers Δ —	1-2	+3.9	—	——	+1.8	+12.9	The Clippers grade out at 12th with a 3.897 neutral-field rating, a big jump from last year's 1.864 prior, and they've done it against a schedule 1.784 points tougher than average. That rating implies they'd be roughly 4-point favorites over a league-average team on a neutral floor, yet the market sits 12.94 points off their rating, meaning the number is pricing them well above what the underlying data supports — that's a sell signal, not a buy. With no key players listed as unavailable, the gap is purely market hype versus production, so I'm fading LAC against the spread until the rating catches up.
13	Philadelphia 76ers Δ —	3-1	+2.6	—	——	+2.2	-0.9	Philadelphia grades out 13th at +2.563 points better than average on a neutral field, a massive jump from a -0.508 prior-season rating, so this is a real buy rather than a mirage. The market is already ahead of that number though, with a vs_market mark of -0.92, meaning the Eagles are being priced roughly a point stronger than this rating implies, so you're paying a premium on spreads and shouldn't chase inflated lines. With no key players listed as unavailable and a solid 2.226 strength of schedule behind a 3-1 record, the rating is trustworthy, but the edge is on the buy-low side of the number, not laying the extra point.
14	Cleveland Cavaliers Δ —	2-1	+2.3	—	——	-0.9	-2.2	Cleveland sits at 14th with a 2.335 neutral-field rating, down from a 2.959 prior-season mark, and that soft -0.924 strength of schedule makes the 2-1 record look better than the underlying number. The market is already ahead of the model at -2.24 versus the rating, so there's no value buying the Cavs at current prices. This is a slight sell until the rating stabilizes.
15	Orlando Magic Δ —	1-2	+1.5	—	——	+7.4	+4.1	Orlando sits 15th with a +1.485 neutral-field rating, up sharply from a 0.516 prior-season mark, and that jump has come against a brutal 7.411 strength of schedule. The market is still pricing them 4.11 points worse than this rating implies, so they're a clear buy — if the number is a couple points short of the rating, take the points or the side. No key players are docked, so the rating is clean.
16	LON London Lions Δ —	0-0	+1.4	—	——	0.0	+1.4	London sits at 16th with a neutral-field rating of just 1.381 points better than an average team, and with no games played the 0-0 record and empty last-five splits give us nothing to confirm or fade that number. The market at 1.38 lines up almost exactly with the model, so there's no edge either way right now — this is a wait-and-see team until real results and a schedule strength show up. No key players are listed as unavailable, so the rating is clean, but a sub-1.5 rating means they're closer to a pick'em than a team you'd back laying points.
17	TBD TBD Δ —	0-0	+1.4	—	——	0.0	+1.4	At No. 17 with a neutral-field rating of +1.381 points, this is a slightly-above-average team that the market is pricing almost exactly where the model does, with a vs_market gap of just 1.38. With a 0-0 record, zero strength of schedule, and no prior-season rating to lean on, there's nothing here to buy or sell yet, so treat them as a wait-and-see and let the early lines confirm the number before committing.
18	Denver Nuggets Δ —	1-2	+0.9	—	——	+0.8	-3.9	Denver ranks 18th at just 0.937 points better than an average team on a neutral field, a steep drop from last season's 4.0 prior rating. The 1-2 record against a soft 0.801 strength of schedule makes that decline hard to dismiss, and the market's -3.85 vs_market gap says the public is still pricing this team on last year's name. That's a clear sell: lay the points against Denver until the rating recovers, and treat any spread near a field goal as too generous to this offense.
19	Charlotte Hornets Δ —	3-1	+0.8	—	——	-4.9	+6.2	Charlotte sits 19th with a neutral-field rating of just 0.818 points better than average, a steep fall from a prior-season rating of 8.025, and that decline is softened by a weak -4.936 strength of schedule. The 3-1 record is fool's gold against that schedule, but the 6.21 vs-market edge says the market is still pricing them worse than this rating, making them a modest buy at the number rather than a fade. With no key players unavailable and zero injury dock, the rating is clean, so treat them as a small live underdog catching points, not a team to lay with.
20	Phoenix Suns Δ —	1-2	-3.1	—	——	+4.0	-4.9	Phoenix sits at 20th with a -3.083 neutral-field rating, meaning they're roughly a field-goal underdog to an average team, and that's a real step down from last season's -0.895 prior rating. The schedule has been brutal (4.027 strength of schedule) and they've gone 1-2, yet the market still prices them 4.9 points better than this rating implies, so they're overrated by the number and a clear sell against the spread. With no key players listed as unavailable, the rating reflects their healthy form, which makes that market gap even harder to justify.
21	Miami Heat Δ —	0-4	-3.5	—	——	+4.3	-5.8	Miami sits at 21st with a minus-3.47 neutral-field rating, down from minus-1.43 a year ago, and that decline has come against the fourth-toughest schedule in the league, so the 0-4 start is not purely a mirage. The market is already pricing the Heat 5.85 points worse than this rating implies, which flags them as a live buy-low if the schedule softens. No key players are listed as unavailable, so there is no injury dock inflating the number — the rating is clean.
22	Golden State Warriors Δ —	1-3	-4.2	—	——	-0.9	+1.5	Golden State sits at 22nd with a -4.159 neutral rating, meaning they're roughly four points worse than an average team, and that's a modest improvement on last year's -5.486 prior. At 1-3 with a soft -0.87 strength of schedule, they've beaten the market by 1.5 points, so the number may be lagging slightly behind a team trending the right direction. Buy-low territory: the rating implies they'd be underdogs by about four to a league-average opponent, which is a fairer price than their record suggests.
23	New Orleans Pelicans Δ —	0-3	-4.4	—	——	-5.6	+2.8	New Orleans sits at 23rd with a -4.375 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly 4.4-point underdogs to an average team, and their -5.646 strength of schedule suggests even that mark is partly schedule-driven. The 0-3 record with a +2.75 vs-market figure says the market has been overrating them and they've underperformed the number, so this is a sell until the rating stabilizes. At -4.375 they're a full field goal worse than a typical middling spread would imply, so lay the points against them rather than backing the name.
24	Dallas Mavericks Δ —	2-2	-4.7	—	——	+2.1	+10.6	Dallas sits at 24th with a -4.709 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly a 4.7-point underdog to an average team, and that number comes against the league's second-toughest schedule (2.082) so the 2-2 record is doing some heavy lifting. The real story is the jump from a -8.37 prior-season rating — this is a genuine buy-low candidate, especially since the market prices them 10.55 points off their rating, which is a massive disconnect worth exploiting. No key players are docked, so this rating is clean and the improvement looks real rather than injury-driven.
25	Memphis Grizzlies Δ —	4-0	-6.7	—	——	-9.0	-7.2	Memphis sits at 25th with a -6.739 neutral-field rating, meaning they're roughly a touchdown worse than an average team, and that's a real improvement from last year's -13.172 prior rating. The market has them at -7.23 versus my number, so the books are pricing them slightly worse than the data suggests, which makes them a marginal buy at the current line. Their 4-0 record is doing a lot of work here, but a -9.04 strength of schedule says that start came against soft competition, so don't overpay for the wins.
26	Indiana Pacers Δ —	2-2	-7.4	—	——	-8.4	-16.8	Indiana grades out at -7.372 points versus an average team on a neutral field, which slots them 26th and makes them a clear sell at almost any number near a touchdown. That -8.441 strength of schedule is soft, so the rating may even flatter them, and the -16.76 vs-market gap says the number has been running well ahead of what this team actually is. With no key players listed as unavailable, there's no injury excuse to buy here.
27	Washington Wizards Δ —	2-2	-10.1	—	——	-4.4	-4.3	Washington sits at 27th with a -10.14 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly a 10-point underdog to an average team, and the market is even harsher at -4.34 versus the rating, so the public is already pricing them below where the numbers put them. The real story is the jump from a -15.22 prior-season rating to -10.14, a meaningful improvement despite a soft -4.36 schedule, which makes them a quiet buy-low on the spread rather than a team to fade further.
28	Milwaukee Bucks Δ —	1-3	-10.3	—	——	-7.0	+0.2	Milwaukee sits at 28th with a -10.29 neutral-field rating, and that number is no fluke since it's essentially unchanged from last year's -10.22 prior rating against a fairly soft -6.98 schedule. The 1-3 record with a +0.23 vs-market mark says the market has been slightly too low on them, so this is a modest buy-low on the number rather than a real endorsement of the team. With no key players docked and an unchanged rating, expect them to be priced as roughly 10-point underdogs to an average opponent on a neutral floor.
29	Utah Jazz Δ —	1-3	-10.5	—	——	-3.1	-4.1	Utah sits at 29th with a -10.5 neutral-field rating, a slight improvement on last year's -11.2 but still firmly in the league's basement. The market has been even harsher than the numbers, with the Jazz outperforming the spread by 4.1 points across a 1-3 start against a soft -3.1 schedule, so there's a modest buy-low case on a team the public is over-fading.
30	Sacramento Kings Δ —	0-3	-11.0	—	——	+0.8	+1.0	Sacramento ranks dead last at 30 with a neutral-field rating of -10.99 points, meaning they'd be roughly 11-point underdogs to an average team, and their 0-3 record confirms the model isn't being harsh. The rating has barely budged from last season's -10.903, so this is a stable bad team rather than a small-sample fluke, and the +1.02 vs-market figure suggests the number is already priced close to fair. With a soft 0.82 strength of schedule and no key absences to blame, there's no buy-low case here — fade Sacramento as a favorite and treat any short spread as a gift.
31	Chicago Bulls Δ —	1-3	-13.0	—	——	-1.8	-3.1	Chicago grades out at -12.97 points versus an average team on a neutral floor, 31st in the league and nearly 3.6 points worse than their prior-season rating of -9.42, so this is a clear step back even against a soft schedule (-1.76). At 1-3 and underperforming the market by 3.06 points, the books are still pricing them better than the numbers say, which makes them a sell and a fade candidate whenever the spread sits a field goal or more short of that -13 baseline.
32	Brooklyn Nets Δ —	0-3	-14.4	—	——	-1.4	-3.4	At -14.39 rating points, Brooklyn is the second-worst team in the league, and even a soft -1.41 schedule hasn't masked it through an 0-3 start. The market is still pricing them 3.42 points better than this rating, which makes them a clear sell until the number catches up. With no key absences docked, this is a pure talent problem, not an injury one.

Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. Δ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale — positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams →