Pistons Own the Throne, but the Spurs Are the Story in Week 1 Power Rankings
The Week 1 Board: Detroit on Top, but Don't Sleep on San Antonio
The first power rankings of the 2026 NBA season are here, and the headline is simple: Detroit is the best team in basketball by our numbers. The Pistons sit at No. 1 with an 11.94 neutral-field rating, up sharply from an 8.9 prior-season mark, and they've opened 3-0 against a schedule rated 2.5 points above average. That's a statement start for a team the market is still catching up on — at 6.15 points of edge versus the spread, Detroit is a clear buy.
But the real story of the week isn't at the top. It's at No. 4, where San Antonio sits with a 9.53 rating despite a 1-2 record. The Spurs' rating is just a hair under their 10.32 prior-season mark, and their 5.29 strength of schedule explains some of the early noise. The market is pricing them about 2.43 points worse than this rating implies, which makes them a team to watch as the schedule balances out. In a week where the top five didn't change, the most interesting movement is the gap between record and rating — and San Antonio is the poster child.
The Top Five
1. Detroit Pistons (11.94, no change) — Detroit sits at No. 1 with an 11.9-point neutral-field rating, up sharply from an 8.9 prior-season mark, and they're 3-0 against a schedule rated 2.5 points above average. The market is still catching up: at 6.15 points of edge versus the spread, this team is a clear buy, and a rating this high means they should be laying points most nights. The Pistons have the look of a team that's for real.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (10.94, no change) — OKC grades out as the No. 2 team in the league at +10.94 points better than average on a neutral field, up sharply from an 8.06 prior-season rating. They've opened 4-0 with no injury dock against the second-toughest schedule in the sample. The market is still pricing them 3.67 points shy of this rating, so they're a buy until the number catches up. The Thunder are legit.
3. Houston Rockets (9.64, no change) — Houston grades out as a legitimate top-three team at 9.64 points better than average on a neutral field, a massive jump from last year's 4.63 prior rating. They've backed it up at 4-0 against a schedule that's no cakewalk (5.33 SOS). The market is still catching up, with a 6.21-point gap between their rating and the number, so there's value here. The Rockets are for real.
4. San Antonio Spurs (9.53, no change) — San Antonio's 9.53 neutral-field rating ranks 4th and sits just a hair under its 10.32 prior-season mark, so this is a legitimately strong team despite the 1-2 record. The 5.29 strength of schedule explains some of that early noise. The market is pricing the Spurs about 2.43 points worse than this rating implies, which makes them a team to buy low on. Don't let the record fool you.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (9.05, no change) — Minnesota sits 5th with a 9.05 neutral-field rating, a massive jump from last season's 1.39. They've backed it up at 3-1 against the toughest schedule in the sample (1.34). The market is still catching up, with a 6.78 gap between rating and market price, so this is a clear buy — their rating implies they should be favored more often than not.
Risers and Fallers
Here's the thing about Week 1: the board is stable at the top. The top five — Detroit, Oklahoma City, Houston, San Antonio, and Minnesota — didn't move a single spot from our preseason numbers. That's rare, but it makes sense. The ratings are built to account for strength of schedule, and early results haven't been jarring enough to shake the foundation. The biggest story isn't movement; it's the gap between record and rating. San Antonio at 1-2 in the top five is the clearest example, but Atlanta at 2-2 and No. 7 with an 8.26 rating (up from 2.53) is another. The Hawks are a massive riser in rating even if their rank held steady. On the flip side, New York at 0-3 and No. 11 with a 4.93 rating (down from 7.15) is a faller in rating, but their rank didn't drop because the teams below them haven't done enough to leapfrog. The board is stable because the numbers are doing their job: separating schedule from results.
How the Board Sets Up
San Antonio (No. 4, 9.53) — The Spurs are the most intriguing team on the board. A 1-2 record with a top-five rating means the market is undervaluing them by about 2.43 points. If their schedule softens, they could rattle off wins and their rating will hold. Watch them closely.
Minnesota (No. 5, 9.05) — The Timberwolves have the biggest gap between rating and market price (6.78 points). They've already played the toughest schedule in the sample and come out 3-1. As the schedule eases, they should start covering spreads with regularity. They're a buy.
Atlanta (No. 7, 8.26) — The Hawks are 2-2 but have a rating that's jumped from 2.53 to 8.26. The market has them at just 7.4 versus a 7.4 rating, so there's essentially no edge baked into the number. But if their rating is real, they'll start winning more games and the market will adjust. Keep an eye on them.
New York (No. 11, 4.93) — The Knicks are 0-3 but their rating is still 4.93, down from 7.15. The market is pricing them 1.27 points better than this rating implies, so I'm selling New York until they prove otherwise. But if they turn it around, the rating suggests they're better than their record. A team to monitor.
The Sign-Off
That's the Week 1 board. The top five is set, but the real value is in the gaps — teams like San Antonio and Minnesota that the market hasn't fully priced yet. The numbers don't lie, and right now they're telling me the Pistons are the best team in the league, but the Spurs might be the smartest bet. I'm Earl, and I know ball. Check back next week.